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The final filter: how project finance decides which critical minerals projects get built
In mid-2025, the United States Department of Defense established a ten-year price floor of $110 per kilogram for neodymium-praseodymium oxide, a hard-to-substitute input for the high-performance permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, wind turbines, industrial motors, and defence systems. The floor was designed to give a single producer, MP Materials, the revenue certainty it needed to justify building domestic capacity. It was an intervention premised on the assumption

Alvaro Antoni
Jun 8


The architecture of exclusion: critical minerals geopolitics and the November 2026 deadline
On 9 October 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce published its second critical minerals export control package of the year. The package extended licensing requirements to five additional rare earth elements (holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, and ytterbium), brought refining and magnet-manufacturing equipment within scope, and codified an extraterritorial dimension that applies Chinese regulatory authority to foreign-made products incorporating Chinese material or processing

Alvaro Antoni
May 15


Two architectures, one problem: comparing EU and US critical minerals policy
When 54 countries gathered in Washington on 4 February 2026 for the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial, two very different policy architectures arrived in the same room. The European Union came with a Critical Raw Materials Act, a regulatory framework, sixty strategic projects, and a recently launched €3 billion implementation package called RESourceEU. The United States came with a $12 billion strategic minerals stockpile, federal equity stakes in domestic producers, an

Alvaro Antoni
May 5


Critical raw materials: a concept that is less stable than it appears
Critical raw materials lists are expanding. The European Union's current list includes 34 materials, up from 14 in 2011. The United States now designates 60 critical minerals, up from 50 in 2022. Both jurisdictions are investing significant political capital in securing these materials through legislative frameworks, strategic project designations, equity stakes in producers, and, in some cases, the activation of emergency powers. The policy apparatus erected around critical

Alvaro Antoni
Apr 14


The Refining Gap: Why the Transatlantic Critical Minerals Agenda Must Move Beyond the Mine
When representatives of 54 countries gathered in Washington on 4 February 2026 for the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial, the scale of ambition was unmistakable. In the space of a single week, the Trump administration launched Project Vault, a public-private strategic minerals stockpile backed by approximately $12 billion in seed funding; unveiled the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE) as successor to the Biden-era Minerals Security Partnership; and annou

Alvaro Antoni
Feb 11
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